Well, ladies and gentlemen, the day is finally here.
More exciting than Grammy Sunday and with more tradition and stars than Super Bowl Sunday, yes, I’m talking about the one, the only — Oscar Sunday.
Each and every Oscar prognosticator out there has made his or her selections or is putting their ballot together last minute, and, well, I’m happy to say that my Oscar ballot is officially done.
Barring any eleventh hour alterations, of course.
It’s been an interesting awards season, with The Artist as the clear favorite for Best Picture since December, but very little else already seemingly decided.
Jean Dujardin, star of The Artist has come on strong on the last month as a Best Actor favorite. Same as Viola Davis, star of The Help, who is nominated for Best Actress.
Get past the rest of the major categories, like Best Supporting Actor/Actress, the Screenplay categories, and Directing, and everything else is basically up in the air. Could Hugo, this year’s most-nominated film, clean house in the technical categories, or will they all get pretty well split up?
I’ve gone through and listed all of my predictions below, in the order that awards are going to be handed out tonight. I’ve also included potential spoilers and upset alerts, where applicable.
Smart money seems to be on Lubezki’s magnificently beautiful work on Terrence Malick’s ethereal The Tree of Life, but don’t count out The Artist or Hugo here. First-timer Guilliaume Schiffman’s black-and-white pictures in The Artist are glorious, and Robert Richardson (Hugo) is no slouch either. This could be the beginning of The Artist‘s reign on this year’s Oscars, but if Tree of Life doesn’t win, I’d be a bit shocked.
And so it begins. Perhaps. W.E. won the guild award from the costume designers, but it remains to be seen if enough Academy members saw the movie and cared for it enough to award Arianne Phillips’ work. I’d say it’s between The Artist and Hugo, with a slight edge to The Artist since its costumes are more elegant than Hugo‘s train station garb. Although Hugo may be the rightful winner.
Thatcher vs. Voldemort vs. Cross-dresser. I’m going with Thatcher, aka The Iron Lady, but this could be where the Potter franchise picks up its first (and probably only) Oscar.
No doubt in my mind, A Separation will win. Seems to be a strong field this year, but A Separation has won darn near every single pre-cursor award.
Supporting Actor and Actress are about as close to locks as this year’s awards get. Spencer should win here for her marvelous work in The Help, unless The Artist sweeps the awards this year, in which case I’d give to Bejo.
With Film Editing and Best Picture tied so closely together, I’m giving this one to The Artist. Sure, last year there was a split between The Social Network (Editing) and The King’s Speech (Picture), but this is a different year. Without its editing, The Artist is nothing.
I think Hugo is the shoo-in for a few technical category wins. It could be close, with both Hugo and War Horse winning awards from the Motion Picture Sound Editors, but the people liked Hugo more than did they War Horse. Hugo gets the nod.
Re: above. Hugo won the award from the Cinema Audio Society. Should repeat here.
This one is truly up in the air. Paradise Lost 3 seems like the smart money, but then there is the underdog tale of Undefeated, the 3D ballerina story of Pina, war piece Hell and Back Again, and environmental terrorism conscious If a Tree Falls. Flip a five-sided coin. I’m going with Paradise Lost 3.
Rango seems to be the odds-on favorite here. The other big films, Puss in Boots and Kung-Fu Panda 2, don’t have much momentum, and the two international films Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris are unknowns.
No Best Picture-nominated film has ever lost in this category to a non-Best Picture-nominated film. I think that changes this year with Rise of the Planet of the Apes beating out Best Picture nominee Hugo. Rise won the award for Best Visual Effects in an Effects-Driven Film from the Visual Effects Society the same award that previous winners Inception and Avatar won before taking home the Oscar. Only time will tell if Rise beats Hugo to make history.
This one’s been a lock since September. Plummer FTW.
One of the key components to the silent film era was the accompanying music, and so I’m betting that The Artist will add this one to its haul. Hugo and Tinker have magnificent scores, but it’s The Artist‘s year.
Everybody has a 50-50 chance of getting this one right. Unless the Academy voters find it damning to vote for The Muppets, I think it’ll beat Rio to win this one.
I was between The Descendants and Moneyball as my winner until the Writers Guild announced The Descendants as its winner for Adapted Screenplay. Smart money says The Descendants, but Moneyball really should win.
Woody Allen’s script has earned him near-universal praise, and while The Artist has been touted as magical, I think that Midnight in Paris has enough magic to pull off this trick and win over the Academy.
Yeah, your guess is as good as mine.
My Prediction: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Potential Spoiler: Again, really any of the others. But probably ‘God is the Bigger Elvis’ or ‘Barber of Birmingham.’ Or ‘Saving Face.’ Or, ‘Incident in New Baghdad.’ Okay, you caught me, this is a wild guess.
Again, really, your guess is as good as mine. Maybe better. Any of the 5 nominees could realistically win.
Pixar doesn’t have a film nominated in the Animated Feature category for the first time since the award was created in 2001, but it does have a nominee in the Animated Short race (La Luna). I suspect, however, that Flying Books will take out Pixar here.
Only 6 times in the past 63 years has the winner of the Directors Guild Award for Best Director not gone on to win the same award at the Oscars. Smart money says Hazanavicius, with a highly unlikely yet totally possible upset by Mr. Scorsese.
Dujardin came on strong in the last month, with his win at the SAGs seemingly sealing his fate as Oscar winner. And then he won at the BAFTAs as well. Can’t argue with that. Sorry, George and Brad, you’ll have to wait at least another year.
Same to you, Ms. Streep. You’re going to have to wait it out while Viola Davis gives her acceptance speech as only the second African American to win Best Actress. Expect a large standing ovation before ABC goes to a commercial break, coming back to announce…
…that The Artist has won Best Picture! But really, did this prediction surprise any of you? I suspect not.
And there you are, my predictions for the 84th Academy Awards, barring, of course, any last minute changes. Final tallies for the top winners are 6 trophies for The Artist, 3 for Hugo, and 2 for The Help.
Hope everyone enjoys this year’s show, and for those of you in an Oscar pool, best of luck. Unless you’re in my pool, in which case I say, ignore everything I’ve said. Heck, it may do you good.