B: My Final Oscar Predictions

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the day is finally here.

More exciting than Grammy Sunday and with more tradition and stars than Super Bowl Sunday, yes, I’m talking about the one, the only — Oscar Sunday.

Each and every Oscar prognosticator out there has made his or her selections or is putting their ballot together last minute, and, well, I’m happy to say that my Oscar ballot is officially done.

Barring any eleventh hour alterations, of course.

It’s been an interesting awards season, with The Artist as the clear favorite for Best Picture since December, but very little else already seemingly decided.

Jean Dujardin, star of The Artist has come on strong on the last month as a Best Actor favorite. Same as Viola Davis, star of The Help, who is nominated for Best Actress.

Get past the rest of the major categories, like Best Supporting Actor/Actress, the Screenplay categories, and Directing, and everything else is basically up in the air. Could Hugo, this year’s most-nominated film, clean house in the technical categories, or will they all get pretty well split up?

I’ve gone through and listed all of my predictions below, in the order that awards are going to be handed out tonight. I’ve also included potential spoilers and upset alerts, where applicable.

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Prediction: The Tree of Life
Potential Spoiler: The Artist
Upset Alert: Hugo

Smart money seems to be on Lubezki’s magnificently beautiful work on Terrence Malick’s ethereal The Tree of Life, but don’t count out The Artist or Hugo here. First-timer Guilliaume Schiffman’s black-and-white pictures in The Artist are glorious, and Robert Richardson (Hugo) is no slouch either. This could be the beginning of The Artist‘s reign on this year’s Oscars, but if Tree of Life doesn’t win, I’d be a bit shocked.

 

ART DIRECTION
My Prediction: Hugo

Two awards in and The Artist still doesn’t have a trophy? Give it time. This one is Hugo‘s to lose.

 

COSTUME DESIGN
My Prediction: The Artist
Potential Spoiler: Hugo
Upset Alert: W.E.

And so it begins. Perhaps. W.E. won the guild award from the costume designers, but it remains to be seen if enough Academy members saw the movie and cared for it enough to award Arianne Phillips’ work. I’d say it’s between The Artist and Hugo, with a slight edge to The Artist since its costumes are more elegant than Hugo‘s train station garb. Although Hugo may be the rightful winner.

 

MAKEUP
My Prediction: The Iron Lady
Potential Spoiler: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Thatcher vs. Voldemort vs. Cross-dresser. I’m going with Thatcher, aka The Iron Lady, but this could be where the Potter franchise picks up its first (and probably only) Oscar.

 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
My Prediction: A Separation

No doubt in my mind, A Separation will win. Seems to be a strong field this year, but A Separation has won darn near every single pre-cursor award.

 

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My Prediction: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Potential Spoiler: Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Supporting Actor and Actress are about as close to locks as this year’s awards get. Spencer should win here for her marvelous work in The Help, unless The Artist sweeps the awards this year, in which case I’d give to Bejo.

 

FILM EDITING
My Prediction: The Artist
Potential Spoiler: The Descendants, Hugo

With Film Editing and Best Picture tied so closely together, I’m giving this one to The Artist. Sure, last year there was a split between The Social Network (Editing) and The King’s Speech (Picture), but this is a different year. Without its editing, The Artist is nothing.

 

SOUND EDITING
My Prediction: Hugo
Upset Alert: War Horse

I think Hugo is the shoo-in for a few technical category wins. It could be close, with both Hugo and War Horse winning awards from the Motion Picture Sound Editors, but the people liked Hugo more than did they War HorseHugo gets the nod.

 

SOUND MIXING
My Prediction: Hugo

Re: above. Hugo won the award from the Cinema Audio Society. Should repeat here.

 

 

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My Prediction: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Potential Spoiler: The other 4 films (Hell and Back Again, If a Tree Falls, Pina, Undefeated)

This one is truly up in the air. Paradise Lost 3 seems like the smart money, but then there is the underdog tale of Undefeated, the 3D ballerina story of Pina, war piece Hell and Back Again, and environmental terrorism conscious If a Tree Falls. Flip a five-sided coin. I’m going with Paradise Lost 3.

 

ANIMATED FEATURE
My Prediction: Rango
Upset Alert: Chico & Rita

Rango seems to be the odds-on favorite here. The other big films, Puss in Boots and Kung-Fu Panda 2, don’t have much momentum, and the two international films Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris are unknowns.

 

VISUAL EFFECTS
My Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Potential Spoiler: Hugo

No Best Picture-nominated film has ever lost in this category to a non-Best Picture-nominated film. I think that changes this year with Rise of the Planet of the Apes beating out Best Picture nominee HugoRise won the award for Best Visual Effects in an Effects-Driven Film from the Visual Effects Society the same award that previous winners Inception and Avatar won before taking home the Oscar. Only time will tell if Rise beats Hugo to make history.

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR
My Prediction: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Upset Alert: Jonah Hill, Moneyball … just kidding.

This one’s been a lock since September. Plummer FTW.

 

 

ORIGINAL SCORE
My Prediction: The Artist
Potential Spoilers: Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

One of the key components to the silent film era was the accompanying music, and so I’m betting that The Artist will add this one to its haul. Hugo and Tinker have magnificent scores, but it’s The Artist‘s year.

 

ORIGINAL SONG
My Prediction: “Man or Muppet”, The Muppets
Only Other Song Nominated: “Real in Rio”, Rio

Everybody has a 50-50 chance of getting this one right. Unless the Academy voters find it damning to vote for The Muppets, I think it’ll beat Rio to win this one.

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Prediction: The Descendants
Potential Spoiler: Moneyball

I was between The Descendants and Moneyball as my winner until the Writers Guild announced The Descendants as its winner for Adapted Screenplay. Smart money says The Descendants, but Moneyball really should win.

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Prediction: Midnight in Paris
Potential Spoiler: The Artist

Woody Allen’s script has earned him near-universal praise, and while The Artist has been touted as magical, I think that Midnight in Paris has enough magic to pull off this trick and win over the Academy.

 

LIVE ACTION SHORT
My Prediction: The Shore
Potential Spoiler: The rest of the nominees. It’s anyone’s game.

Yeah, your guess is as good as mine.

 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
My Prediction: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Potential Spoiler: Again, really any of the others. But probably ‘God is the Bigger Elvis’ or ‘Barber of Birmingham.’ Or ‘Saving Face.’ Or, ‘Incident in New Baghdad.’ Okay, you caught me, this is a wild guess.

Again, really, your guess is as good as mine. Maybe better. Any of the 5 nominees could realistically win.

 

ANIMATED SHORT
My Prediction: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Potential Spoiler: La Luna

Pixar doesn’t have a film nominated in the Animated Feature category for the first time since the award was created in 2001, but it does have a nominee in the Animated Short race (La Luna). I suspect, however, that Flying Books will take out Pixar here.

 

DIRECTION
My Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Potential Spoiler: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Only 6 times in the past 63 years has the winner of the Directors Guild Award for Best Director not gone on to win the same award at the Oscars. Smart money says Hazanavicius, with a highly unlikely yet totally possible upset by Mr. Scorsese.

 

ACTOR
My Prediction: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Potential Spoiler: George Clooney, The Descendants
Upset Alert: Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Dujardin came on strong in the last month, with his win at the SAGs seemingly sealing his fate as Oscar winner. And then he won at the BAFTAs as well. Can’t argue with that. Sorry, George and Brad, you’ll have to wait at least another year.

 

ACTRESS
My Prediction: Viola Davis, The Help
Potential Spoiler: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Upset Alert: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. My my, would that be an upset.

Same to you, Ms. Streep. You’re going to have to wait it out while Viola Davis gives her acceptance speech as only the second African American to win Best Actress. Expect a large standing ovation before ABC goes to a commercial break, coming back to announce…

 

PICTURE
My Prediction: The Artist
Upset Alert: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Hey, you never know.

…that The Artist has won Best Picture! But really, did this prediction surprise any of you? I suspect not.

 

 

And there you are, my predictions for the 84th Academy Awards, barring, of course, any last minute changes. Final tallies for the top winners are 6 trophies for The Artist, 3 for Hugo, and 2 for The Help.

Hope everyone enjoys this year’s show, and for those of you in an Oscar pool, best of luck. Unless you’re in my pool, in which case I say, ignore everything I’ve said. Heck, it may do you good.

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One thought on “B: My Final Oscar Predictions

  1. Pingback: B’s Morning After: Oscar reactions, notes, and a far-too-early 2013 contenders list « K&B Hype the Movies

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